Black walnut has hardwood, high strength, good toughness and good pressure resistance. It is considered as a raw material for the manufacture of high-end goods, and the market demand is large. However, the output of black walnut logs in China is low, so it relies heavily on imports. North America, Northern Europe and other places are the main import countries of China's black walnut logs.
The main application fields of black walnut logs are furniture, automobiles, etc. Among them, furniture is its main application field. In 2017, with the recovery of China's economic growth rate, the investment in the real estate industry improved, the demand of the furniture industry increased significantly, and the orders of domestic black walnut furniture manufacturers continued to increase, making the demand for black walnut logs growing rapidly. According to the “2017-2021 Black Walnut Log Market Development Prospect Analysis and Supply and Demand Pattern Research and Forecast Report” released by Xinsijie, the demand for black walnut log products was 108,200 cubic meters in 2017.
However, the supply of black walnut logs on the market is not very adequate. This is mainly due to the reduction of global timber resources, and the long production cycle of logs black walnuts. Countries generally adopt strict control measures for the harvesting of black walnut logs. The United States is the main producer of global black walnut logs and the main imports of black walnut logs in China. The country also has certain restrictions on the export of black walnut, which has a greater impact on the supply of black walnuts in China, which makes the contradiction between supply and demand of black walnut logs in China aggravated, and the price of black walnut logs also rises.
On the other hand, the “Brexit” incident led to the continued strength of the US dollar, the increase in container shipping costs worldwide, and the increase in transportation costs of major routes. As a result, the purchase cost of Chinese log black walnuts continued to rise and product prices increased. In 2017, the price of Chinese black walnut logs was 10,500 yuan / cubic meter. However, the excessively high price has severely hampered the enthusiasm of downstream manufacturers to enter the goods. Therefore, many manufacturers are hesitant about the orders of black walnut furniture products, and the demand growth rate of logs black walnuts has also declined. It is estimated that the price of Chinese black walnut logs will show a downward trend from 2018 to 2019. It is estimated that the price of Chinese black walnut logs will be 9,800 yuan / cubic meter in 2018.
New Sijie industry analysts believe that the macro-economic environment, policy environment and demand environment of the black walnut log industry will be better in the future, and the industry has a large space for development. However, in view of the scarcity of black walnut logs and external dependence, the price of black walnut logs will still fluctuate greatly in the future, and the upstream and downstream investment of the industry should be cautious.